Parametric Estimation of Menarcheal Age Distribution Based on Recall Data

Menarche, the onset of menstruation, is an important maturational event of female childhood. Most of the studies of age at menarche make use of dichotomous (status quo) data. More information can be harnessed from recall data, but such data are often censored in a informative way. We show that the usual maximum likelihood estimator based on interval censored data, which ignores the informative nature of censoring, can be biased and inconsistent. We propose a parametric estimator of the menarcheal age distribution on the basis of a realistic model of the recall phenomenon. We identify the additional information contained in the recall data and demonstrate theoretically as well as through simulations the advantage of the maximum likelihood estimator based on recall data over that based on status quo data.     

中国市场奢侈品消费模式研究--从地位寻求式消费到产品认知式消费

中国市场奢侈品一方面消费强劲,另一方面也面临着传统奢侈品业绩下滑,品牌老化的困境。新一代奢侈品消费群对奢侈品的消费从地位寻求式消费过渡到产品认知式消费,更加关注产品的性价比与品牌个性,要求品牌商适度进行品牌延伸,更加注重奢侈品的内在价值与服务。     

Widowhood and Well‐being in Europe: The Role of National and Regional Context

Researchers have documented that widows have lower levels of subjective well‐being than married individuals, but we still know little about how the regional and national contexts affect the impact of widowhood on well‐being. Building on social capital theory and using data from 5 rounds of the European Social Survey (N= 119,292 people, 206 regions, 23 countries), the authors tested how marital status composition at the national and regional levels affects the well‐being of widows. Widows fare worse in countries with high proportions of married people and in regions and countries with high proportions of widowed persons. The proportion of married individuals at the regional level does not affect their well‐being. These results are in line with the greedy marriage hypothesis, but varying effects at regional and national levels suggest that the standard explanation for this phenomenon, lack of individual social support, is not valid. This study demonstrates the importance of multiple contextual embeddedness.     

数字化趋势下的回族古籍整理与研究

当代科学的数字化趋势给古籍整理研究带来挑战和机遇,汉古籍文献数字化成果给我们很多启示。在这一社会背景下,回族古籍整理与研究将如何面对数字化,数字化过程中会遇到哪些难题,是每个回族古籍整理研究者思考和关心的问题。本文提出并尝试着探讨这些问题,以期引起同行对回族古籍文献数字化的重视和探索。     

浅谈《蒙古秘史》中的婚姻状况

通过对《蒙古秘史》中所记载的蒙古族婚姻状况分析 ,作者认为在 1 3世纪前 ,蒙古族就已进入较稳定的一夫一妻制且形成了一整套的婚姻规章     

拉萨市近10年旅游业的发展及广阔前景

拉萨市旅游业在起步后的20多年间保持了较快的发展速度,使旅游业已经成为拉萨市经济和社会发展的支柱产业。青藏铁路的建成通车,将进一步推动西藏旅游业的迅速发展,“十一五”期间,拉萨市将向生态化、国际化的旅游名城迈进。     

关于霍集斯的几个问题

霍集斯(1710年-1781年)①,乌什维吾尔人,清朝统一新疆过程中归顺,曾扮演清朝军政生活中的重要角色,并对清朝统一新疆大业的顺利进行产生过重要影响。本文拟就霍集斯的宗教派别,其家族在新疆的地位,其家族投清对清朝统一新疆大业的影响及投清后的授官封爵情况等问题进行浅述,以期弥补这方面研究的不足。     

以“德”抗“位”的回归——论孟子、赵岐和朱熹的君臣观

在君臣关系上,先秦孟子主张德高于位,东汉赵岐虽未能继承孟子衣钵以德抗位,却也守道不违,守住了人臣的基本原则。而至南宋朱熹在吸纳与反省宋代《孟子》议题的时候,再次开掘和彰显仁义道德本真,以德抗位的人臣之本也自东汉赵岐之后得以回归。     

孔子正名思想探源

孔子的“正名”说并非无源之水,而是发端于前孔子时代人们对于“名”的深入思考。“名”这个观念受到重视与礼乐文化密切相关,由此,“名”的问题展现为两条进路：一、与名分义相关的政治进路;二、与名声义相关的道德进路,孔子继承并发展了这两个方面。澄清了这个过程,就会看到,孔子正名思想不能简单地看做中国古代逻辑学的起源,而应当看作儒家内圣外王之义理规模的发生地。     

论中国农民成员权

中国农民成员权是指由中国法律制度确认的,有农民身份者在村社集体关系中享有主体地位和利益份额的法律资格。中国农民成员权是特定范围农民的群体性权利,可使集体权益回归农民,维护村社组织本旨,实现土地保障功能。在私法中,以成员资格为基础安排主体制度,以集体利益为基础安排客体制度,通过成员权衍生权利体系展现权利内容。同时,按照法定程式行使成员权,并依据多种意志共治实现成员权变动。